Acquisitions & investment

The mispriced line in every deal model

Every target you evaluate carries a legitimacy position — and the market prices it as a mood, buried in the discount rate. L-VaR™ measures it, prices it in dollars, and tells you whether the value others have written off is genuinely recoverable.

The diligence gap

Your data room prices everything — except the risk that strands assets.

Technical, legal, financial — the story the data room tells is thorough. But the instruments diligence leans on all orbit legitimacy risk without pricing it, and the difference lands in your bid.

ESG frameworks

Disclosure, not experience

Measure what companies disclose — not what communities experience.

Country-risk indices

The past, at country level

Not what happens next, at project level.

Vendor estimates

Error bars hide it

Consent risk hides inside the error bar.

Risk registers

A heat map of yesterday

Can’t say when, how long, or what it costs.

US$0B

Legitimacy-free value across the 50-project portfolio

0%

Average L-VaR™ haircut the market never itemised

US$0B

Genuinely bankable once legitimacy is priced

US$0B

NPV overstatement — hidden inside the rate

What screening reveals

Four lenses on every target.

Every “difficult” project is a legitimacy problem wearing a permitting label. The same engine that produces our benchmark reports runs across your target — or your whole opportunity set — with one method and the same audit trail.

01 · L-VaR™

Price the risk

The legitimacy risk on every asset — one method, same audit trail, comparable across the set.

02 · LCV

What it’s really worth

What each asset is worth today once legitimacy is priced — and the recoverable delta the vendor’s model doesn’t show.

03 · Strategic opportunity

Buy, resolve, partner — or walk past

Recoverability-ranked: which contested assets are trading below what their dynamics support, and which are priced for a story that won’t hold.

04 · Supply

What consent brings back

How much stranded tonnage consent could bring back, and when — the upside case, tested rather than asserted.

The bid you can defend

Bid on LCV, not on a hopeful NPV.

A WACC premium or a blanket sector discount is a mood, not a measurement. BPV strips every legitimacy cost out of the base, then applies L-VaR™ as a transparent, calibrated discount on top. One opaque rate becomes three honest numbers — and a price you can defend to your committee.

BPV
Base Project Value — orebody − (capex + opex), legitimacy-free. Built from proven reserves and through-cycle prices.
×
(1 − L-VaR%)
The calibrated discount — project-specific, separately quantified, calibrated to legitimacy reality — and testable.
=
LCV
Legitimacy Contingent Value — the value that survives the risk. What an acquirer should actually underwrite to.
Where the value hides

Where everyone else sees a problem, we see a recoverable asset

Difficult jurisdictions. Previously rejected projects. Contested, stranded assets. Value others have written off. Not the same assets everyone else wants — assets that can be unlocked through L-VaR™ and Development by Consent.

Where the risk hides

Not every discount is a bargain

Some targets trade below their dynamics and are genuinely recoverable. Others are priced for a story that won’t survive contact with the record. The screening tells you which is which — before you commit the capital.

How to engage

One target — or the whole opportunity set.

Screening one target

The Diagnostic is the best outside-in read of a single project there is — built entirely from the public record, so it needs nothing from the vendor and nothing from the data room. How much of the value its legitimacy position puts at risk over five and thirty years, whether it is recoverable, and on what conditions. Delivered in around 2 weeks — inside a bid window. A$35,000 + GST.

See the services

Ranking an opportunity set

The Portfolio Diagnostic runs the same lens across every target you hold or are weighing, and ranks them on one comparable measure — where to buy, where to protect, and where to stop spending. It stands alone: nothing is required before it, and it is scoped per pipeline. Tell us what you’re evaluating below.

Get in touch

Get in touch

Tell us what you’re evaluating.

A single target, a shortlist, or a whole pipeline — tell us what you need and we will come back to you. Everything is commercial-in-confidence.

You can also reach us at any time at www.spektrumdevelopment.com/contact

See the method at work

The benchmark reports show exactly what a screening looks like.

Projects run through the L-VaR™ engine on one comparable measure — where value is at risk, where it concentrates, and where it is recoverable.