Acquisitions & investment
The mispriced line in every deal model
Every target you evaluate carries a legitimacy position — and the market prices it as a mood, buried in the discount rate. L-VaR™ measures it, prices it in dollars, and tells you whether the value others have written off is genuinely recoverable.
Your data room prices everything — except the risk that strands assets.
Technical, legal, financial — the story the data room tells is thorough. But the instruments diligence leans on all orbit legitimacy risk without pricing it, and the difference lands in your bid.
Disclosure, not experience
Measure what companies disclose — not what communities experience.
The past, at country level
Not what happens next, at project level.
Error bars hide it
Consent risk hides inside the error bar.
A heat map of yesterday
Can’t say when, how long, or what it costs.
Legitimacy-free value across the 50-project portfolio
Average L-VaR™ haircut the market never itemised
Genuinely bankable once legitimacy is priced
NPV overstatement — hidden inside the rate
Four lenses on every target.
Every “difficult” project is a legitimacy problem wearing a permitting label. The same engine that produces our benchmark reports runs across your target — or your whole opportunity set — with one method and the same audit trail.
Price the risk
The legitimacy risk on every asset — one method, same audit trail, comparable across the set.
What it’s really worth
What each asset is worth today once legitimacy is priced — and the recoverable delta the vendor’s model doesn’t show.
Buy, resolve, partner — or walk past
Recoverability-ranked: which contested assets are trading below what their dynamics support, and which are priced for a story that won’t hold.
What consent brings back
How much stranded tonnage consent could bring back, and when — the upside case, tested rather than asserted.
Bid on LCV, not on a hopeful NPV.
A WACC premium or a blanket sector discount is a mood, not a measurement. BPV strips every legitimacy cost out of the base, then applies L-VaR™ as a transparent, calibrated discount on top. One opaque rate becomes three honest numbers — and a price you can defend to your committee.
Where everyone else sees a problem, we see a recoverable asset
Difficult jurisdictions. Previously rejected projects. Contested, stranded assets. Value others have written off. Not the same assets everyone else wants — assets that can be unlocked through L-VaR™ and Development by Consent.
Not every discount is a bargain
Some targets trade below their dynamics and are genuinely recoverable. Others are priced for a story that won’t survive contact with the record. The screening tells you which is which — before you commit the capital.
One target — or the whole opportunity set.
Screening one target
The Diagnostic is the best outside-in read of a single project there is — built entirely from the public record, so it needs nothing from the vendor and nothing from the data room. How much of the value its legitimacy position puts at risk over five and thirty years, whether it is recoverable, and on what conditions. Delivered in around 2 weeks — inside a bid window. A$35,000 + GST.
Ranking an opportunity set
The Portfolio Diagnostic runs the same lens across every target you hold or are weighing, and ranks them on one comparable measure — where to buy, where to protect, and where to stop spending. It stands alone: nothing is required before it, and it is scoped per pipeline. Tell us what you’re evaluating below.
Tell us what you’re evaluating.
A single target, a shortlist, or a whole pipeline — tell us what you need and we will come back to you. Everything is commercial-in-confidence.
You can also reach us at any time at www.spektrumdevelopment.com/contact
See the method at work
The benchmark reports show exactly what a screening looks like.
Projects run through the L-VaR™ engine on one comparable measure — where value is at risk, where it concentrates, and where it is recoverable.
Nothing in this material constitutes financial product advice or any other advice, or a recommendation to acquire, dispose of or hold any financial product. Spektrum Development Pty Ltd does not hold an Australian financial services licence and is not authorised to provide financial product advice. Recipients should obtain appropriate independent professional advice before making any investment or financial decision on the basis of this material.